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The Green Shoot Spotter (GSS) Index

Just found the Green Shoot Spotter (GSS) Index on the financial website Breaking Views

Published each Friday it tracks the good, bad and downright ugly news of the global economy and places each headline item into a category of:

  1. “Still in real trouble”
  2. “Getting less bad”
  3. “Not just stabilising, but stable”
  4. “Slow growth”
  5. “Rapid recovery”

By working out the percentages of good and bad news stories in each category, Breaking Views is tracking where we are, if at all, on this road to recovery.

Here are some examples of what happened last week:

Category 1, “Still in real trouble”, 13 out of 36 items:

Japan’s industrial activity was down 2.4% in March compared to 2.3% in February
Russian GDP fell by 10.5%
UK mortgage lending of £2.7bn, compared to £3.4bn, in March was the lowest for eight years
The FDIC listed 305 banks with $220bn in assets as ‘problem’ banks in Q1, up from 252 with $192bn in Q4

Category 2, “Not as bad”, 16 items:

Euro area current account deficit was €6.5bn in March, down from €7.8bn in February
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 54.9 in May, from 40.8 in April
10-year Treasury yields reached 3.7%
Singapore industrial production fell 0.5% in April after slumping 32.8% in March

Category 3, “Not just stabilising but stable”, 3 items:

The BNB Confidence Index rose for the second consecutive month to -27.6 in May -29.4 in April
Italian Business Confidence rose for the second consecutive month in May (must be Berlusconi’s divorce news)
UK Consumer Confidence reached the highest levels for a year in May

Category 4, “Slow growth”, 4 items:

The Polish economy grew 0.8% year-on-year in Q1
Japan’s industrial output increased 5.2% in April
India’s economy grew by 5.8% year-on-year in Q1, faster than expected

Category 5, “Rapid recovery”:

Nothing, nada, nil, nowt.

The GSS index was down at 1.9, 0.1 off last week’s high of 2 and slightly up on the week before’s 1.8.

Come on guys, gimme 5.

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About Chris M Skinner

Chris M Skinner
Chris Skinner is best known as an independent commentator on the financial markets through his blog, TheFinanser.com, as author of the bestselling book Digital Bank, and Chair of the European networking forum the Financial Services Club. He has been voted one of the most influential people in banking by The Financial Brand (as well as one of the best blogs), a FinTech Titan (Next Bank), one of the Fintech Leaders you need to follow (City AM, Deluxe and Jax Finance), as well as one of the Top 40 most influential people in financial technology by the Wall Street Journal’s Financial News. To learn more click here...

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