It’s Monday, start of the week, smile on my face and sun in the sky.
I should be looking up, pushing forward, feeling fine and seeing the future as bright.
We should all be.
But there’s a little cloud on the horizon called doubt.
Why is there doubt?
Because there is a feeling that we have prescribed the drugs to treat the illness but have not cured the disease.
Governments have pumped $11 trillion into the financial system, whilst banks have a further $1.5 trillion to come, according to the IMF’s latest figures.
$1.5 trillion still to write-off?
And most of that in Europe's banks?
According to the IMF, there's $418 billion in further bank losses in the USA, $126 billion in Asia and the bulk of the losses – $934 billion – in Europe, with $344 billion of that lot in the UK alone.
So yes, it’s Monday, start of the week, smile on my face and sun in the sky.
I am looking up, pushing forward, feeling fine and seeing the future as bright.
I just don’t like that little cloud.
Mind you, what do the IMF really know as last year they estimated the crisis to cost around $400 billion when it was just subprime losses and then upped it to $1 trillion after Lehmans collapse (blog entry from December 2008):
"Maybe it is outlined in the predictions of the IMF, who tagged
the original ‘subprime crisis’ losses to be between $350 and $400 billion in
late 2007. These estimates were increased to $1 trillion in April 2008, as the
markets liquidity started to dry up. And this was increased once more by the
Bank of England in October 2008 to $2.8
Doubt has now been joined by Fear and Uncertainty.