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2014: let the good times roll

It is interesting to hear the non-stop debate about the UK housing market bubble (and it is a bubble); the settling of the European markets after the sovereign debt crisis; the burgeoning US economy that is getting back to normal superpower status; whilst China will be the #1 economy by 2018; and other bullish market statements.

Here are some basic facts:

The UK is doing well

The OECD upgraded its growth forecasts for the UK on Tuesday as the dominant services sector rose for the 16th straight month, and sterling hit a five and a half year high against the dollar, in a sign of the strengthening the economic recovery.  The Paris-based organisation now predicts the UK will grow by 3.2 per cent this year, compared with an OECD average of 2.2 per cent.

The USA is doing well

Economists raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and through the balance of 2014, with a generally brighter outlook for both job growth and lower unemployment.  Analysts see the economy growing at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the current quarter, up from a previous estimate of 3.0 percent, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of 42 forecasters, released on Friday.

Europe is getting better

Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time becoming more balanced.

China will be the largest economy by 2014

The rise of China as a global powerhouse continues at a pace few people could have predicted a decade or two ago.  Now the guessing has begun about when the country will become the world’s largest economy.  Depending on how one crunches the numbers, that could be as soon as the end of this year, according to a new World Bank study that has set the financial world abuzz in recent weeks.

So I guess that means my prediction in January 2009 that the markets would bounce downward through 2012, flatline 2012 through 2014 and boom from 2014 onwards was pretty accurate.

Luckily, I can’t say the same for my 2007 prediction that Microsoft would be dead by now (although their performance has not been stellar).  



About Chris M Skinner

Chris M Skinner
Chris Skinner is best known as an independent commentator on the financial markets through his blog, the Finanser.com, as author of the bestselling book Digital Bank, and Chair of the European networking forum the Financial Services Club. He has been voted one of the most influential people in banking by The Financial Brand (as well as one of the best blogs), a FinTech Titan (Next Bank), one of the Fintech Leaders you need to follow (City AM, Deluxe and Jax Finance), as well as one of the Top 40 most influential people in financial technology by the Wall Street Journal’s Financial News. To learn more click here...

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