It is interesting to hear the non-stop debate about the UK housing market bubble (and it is a bubble); the settling of the European markets after the sovereign debt crisis; the burgeoning US economy that is getting back to normal superpower status; whilst China will be the #1 economy by 2018; and other bullish market statements.
Here are some basic facts:
The OECD upgraded its growth forecasts for the UK on Tuesday as the dominant services sector rose for the 16th straight month, and sterling hit a five and a half year high against the dollar, in a sign of the strengthening the economic recovery. The Paris-based organisation now predicts the UK will grow by 3.2 per cent this year, compared with an OECD average of 2.2 per cent.
Economists raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and through the balance of 2014, with a generally brighter outlook for both job growth and lower unemployment. Analysts see the economy growing at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the current quarter, up from a previous estimate of 3.0 percent, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of 42 forecasters, released on Friday.
Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time becoming more balanced.
The rise of China as a global powerhouse continues at a pace few people could have predicted a decade or two ago. Now the guessing has begun about when the country will become the world’s largest economy. Depending on how one crunches the numbers, that could be as soon as the end of this year, according to a new World Bank study that has set the financial world abuzz in recent weeks.
So I guess that means my prediction in January 2009 that the markets would bounce downward through 2012, flatline 2012 through 2014 and boom from 2014 onwards was pretty accurate.