I was chatting with a friend the other day, who pointed out my predictions. I don’t like to talk about them, as I’ve made so many, but he focused upon how accurate most of them have been.
I was one of the first to talk about the impact of China and India on the future of banking, back in 2006.
In the first of a two-part report, Chris Skinner takes an in-depth look at the emerging Indian and Chinese banking markets.
In the second of a two-part report, Chris Skinner looks at Chinese banking reforms and the emergence of a new superpower.
This is why I caught the wave of change Ant Group was ringing, way before most.
I was one of the first to use the term “Banking-as-a-Service” (BaaS) (2009).
I was one of the first talking about Cloud Computing in Banking (2009).
I was a first to use the term Digital Bank (2012+).
I was an early tracker of a new thing called FinTech (2010).
I was a first to talk about TechFin vs FinTech (2016).
I was an early observer and writer about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (2011).
I noted in April 2020 the prediction that, post-halving, bitcoin’s price would rise to $55,000+ (which it did in January 2021).
I was the one who called blockchain a long-term bet back in 2015.
In the 1990s, I predicted that the telco and financial markets would converge and I would claim to be one of the firsts to predict the mobile revolution in banking when, in 1995, I was asked if I really believed that someone would make a payment from the top of Mount Everest in the future? I adamantly said yes. It just took 18 years to happen.
Way back in 1999, I made this video.
And today it’s a reality.
The list goes on …
… and I hate using so many lines with I, I, I, as though it’s all about me, me, me. It’s not. It’s about you, you, you and us, us, us.
The thing is that I’ve spent four decades focused upon the future of things and the key to my list is that some things are predictable, especially technological change.
So, what do I predict now?
I’ll give you five.
I predict that within ten years:
- most physical cash in most advanced economies will be digital
- most digital currencies will be issued by central banks
- investment banking will still be ruled by America, as it is today, but China will dominate the FinTech markets when it comes to innovation
- 20 of the top 100 major global bank brands will have been acquired
- a challenger bank will be one of the acquirers
Other than that? Star Wars XVI: The Rebel’s Revenge will be #1 in the charts?