A Trade Confidence Index for Asia

This morning my inbox had a big file full of pdf documents talking about business confidence across Asia courtesy of HSBC. 

It was fascinating stuff so here's the summary:

In the first survey of its kind, the HSBC Trade Confidence Index asked 2,100 trade-oriented small to medium sized enterprises in seven markets - China, India, Australia, Vietnam, UAE, Hong Kong and Singapore - about their three-month outlook on: trade volume; buyer and supplier risks; the need for trade finance; access to trade finance; and the impact of foreign exchange and government regulation on their businesses.

The index shows the UAE, India and mainland China respondents are the most confident on trade activity and growth while Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore firms are the most bearish. Hong Kong scored 93.1 points on the trade confidence index compared to the UAE at 115.2, India at 114.7 and mainland China at 111.8.  Vietnam scored 108. Singapore and Australia were just below neutral, with respective scores of 99.9 and 96.6.

In summary, the HSBC Trade Confidence Index provides two perspectives on the trade outlook in the region:

• the more developed markets of Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia are less optimistic – exports are significantly down and the recession continues to impact overall economic activity and sentiment; and
• the developing economies of the UAE, India, mainland China and Vietnam are more positive even if they are not immune to the slowdown.

Here are a few slides from the survey:

If anyone would like a copy of the whole presentation / report, just let me know.

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