No-one cares about payments in 2040 except us

I hate criticising other people’s work, but I do read some complete claptrap about the future. For example, I just got a report about the future of payments in 2040, that starts with a term Order-to-Cash cycle and then paints a scenario of someone buying an automated car. That was the first few paragraphs and, at that point, I stopped reading.

Why?

Because who the hell will be talking about cash and cars in 2040?

Cash in 2040 will be a thing of the past … it near enough is already. That’s sad as I love bank notes as art, but that’s all that bank notes will be in 2040. Twentieth century art. There will be no paper systems in 2040.

Meanwhile the automated car? Who would ever buy one? You will just order a move from A to B through your cloud-based, glass-enabled system – yes, everyone will be wearing glasses in 2040 – and the vehicle will arrive on-demand. No one drives or buys cars anymore. In fact, it’s far more likely that you will fly on a drone than drive in a car.

So, what else is happening in 2040?

Well, it’s hugely likely that space tourism will be generally accessible. Yes, you and your kids will have space holidays to Disney Moon and Universal Studios Mars … if you want.

Most of your travel will be completely automated – self-driving cars, drones and planes will be connecting the world – and you just board or order on-demand by saying: “I need to get to London on Tuesday morning”.

What does this mean for commerce generally? Well, you want something and you just ask for it. “I need food, what are my chioces”, a menu appears and you just look at it and choose one; “I’m feeling like I need some exercise and a massage”, and a map of all places that offer such services – with their star ratings for user sat – appear in your glasses; “I want to talk to Chris”, and message box pops up with encrypted chat enabled.

Of course, all of this is in-glasses – no one takes a mobile or laptop around anymore – and you just do it, as Nike says.

Meantime, how is this all paid for?

Well, I claim and still maintain there will be a bank behind all of this. “Show me my balance”, and it pops up when needed; “you are nearing your overdraft limits” says my bank, after ordered that Disney Moon holiday; “you have a payment request from Dave”, after Dave and I split the dinner bill – yes, there are still restaurants and real-life experiences! – last night.

The thing is that all of these transactions and financial operations are background, invisible, embedded, omnipresent and everywhere. The other thing is that every now and again you will get a red alert message. A transaction on your account looks suspicious; you just ordered a new AI-glass; your account is near its limits; 2000 savings credits have been taken; and more.  These are all dealt with through a network of connections. The network of initiating a transaction; the merchant that needs paying; the connector between the merchant and the bank; the bank, that still exists as you need deposits to bank that have surety … but the network is no longer the four-pillar+ network of today. Visa, Mastercard, UnionPay and more have moved into a different world, as has Stripe, Adyen and PayPal.

What is the new payments network?

Well, it’s just a bunch of plug-and-play components brought together by apps and AI, using data tokens that could be crypto or fiat, and delivered to your chip, which is either embedded in a device such as your glasses or your body, which could be a tattoo or a piercing with a chip embedded inside.

Meanwhile, for those forecasting payments in 2040, don’t start with Order-to-Cash and buying a car.