Welcome to 2026, the year of the Horse in the Chinese New Year, which arrives in February. A Year of the Horse symbolizes forward momentum, encouraging bold actions and the pursuit of dreams. That sounds pretty good, but what’s gonna happen?
Well, many are making bold predictions – I used to, but now get them from everywhere else – and the boldest comes from my friends at Saxo Bank!
Every year they make a forecast that is somewhat extreme, but some things come true and so, in the spirit of sharing, here are their eight outrageous predictions for 2026:
- Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
- Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
- Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
- Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
- SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
- A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
- Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
- Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
In tech, take cryptography and imagine what happens if Q-Day suddenly arrives in 2026, the day that quantum machines can crack yesterday’s digital locks effortlessly. Crypto collapses; gold screams to five figures; every bank and government scrambles to rebuild trust in a post-quantum security stack.
Market impact: Volatility in quantum computing stocks, IBM, cybersecurity stocks, bitcoin and other digital assets, gold, banks, etc.
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
In 2026, markets discover that sudden culture shifts can move macro. A single wedding – Swift and Kelce – tips a generation out of doomscrolling and into backyards, marriages, and baby carriages. Fertility and household formation booms. Economists coin a new phrase with a smile: the Swiftie Put.
Market impact: Negative for social media stocks, positive for everything homebuilding/DIY/décor, luxury, wedding venues, destination/travel.
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
In politics, the aggravated partisanship of recent years is suddenly upended after the ugly partisan shenanigans in the US midterm elections shock the silent majority of independents into demanding reform and a strengthening of democratic institutions. Trump stays Trump, but America begins to move on.
Market impact: Rise in US Treasuries (lower yields), decline in social media stocks, crypto, gold, and silver.
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
In medicine, GLP-1 obesity drugs in pill form transform human and even pet health. Waistlines shrink, lifespans stretch, and all food companies race to reinvent themselves for a lighter world.
Market impact: Fast fashion does well as more people need to replace whole wardrobes. Winners and losers emerge in food producers, restaurants, and pet food makers. Healthcare and veterinary stocks rally as GLP-1 adoption broadens.
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
Above the atmosphere, capital markets discover their next frontier. A SpaceX IPO valuation clears a trillion dollars and turns “space economy” from slogan to spreadsheet. Orbital manufacturing and lunar projects migrate from science fiction to investment committee.
Market impact: Rocket companies join the fun, Teledyne, Microchip Technology.
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Back on Earth, an AI model becomes a Fortune 500 CEO, executing without ego and forcing boards to consider the unthinkable: a human-machine partnership at the top.
Market impact: AI infrastructure, cloud, and governance-tech firms continue to surge, insurers and auditors reinvent coverage for algorithmic management. Investors at first assign a new governance-risk premium to any company run by code.
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Geopolitics, never far from the tape in recent years, tests the monetary order as Beijing rolls out a gold-linked offshore yuan for redenomination of its trade. The dollar remains a king, but not the king.
Market impact: Gold advances above USD 6,000, USD/CNH heads below 5.0, US Treasury yields rise on foreign selling. The “golden yuan” becomes a durable second global anchor, not replacing the dollar, but ending its monopoly.
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
While carefully constructed and prompted AI may help run a company, beneath the buzzwords, a humbling reckoning unfolds: dumb AI, or poorly governed agents and “agentic” automations, misfire en masse, generating a trillion-dollar cleanup and a new profession of “AI janitors” to disinfect the codebase of modern life.
Market impact: Cybersecurity, audit, and consulting firms see surging revenues, valuations of highly autonomous AI platforms face pressure, and investors rotate toward companies offering resilience, oversight, and human control.
If you want to know more, here is the full report:
Stratiphy, a fintech firm, also made five bold predictions for 2026 as follows:
💸 The first trillion-dollar financial institution
JPMorgan Chase is already the most valuable bank in the world, with a market capitalisation of around $850bn. Its strength lies in diversification, spanning consumer banking, corporate lending, asset management, and investment banking. JPMorgan has also continued to invest heavily in digital banking, blockchain, AI-driven risk management. In a sector often seen as slow-moving, JPMorgan’s scale, technology focus, and consistent profitability makes it a credible candidate to become the first trillion-dollar financial institution.
JPMorgan Chase is already the most valuable bank in the world, with a market capitalisation of around $850bn. Its strength lies in diversification, spanning consumer banking, corporate lending, asset management, and investment banking. JPMorgan has also continued to invest heavily in digital banking, blockchain, AI-driven risk management. In a sector often seen as slow-moving, JPMorgan’s scale, technology focus, and consistent profitability makes it a credible candidate to become the first trillion-dollar financial institution.
🏆 Gold: The quiet beneficiary of uncertainty
With interest rates expected to gradually ease, geopolitical tensions lingering, and concerns around global growth and equity valuations rising, investors may increasingly look to gold as a store of value and hedge against volatility. Historically, gold performs best when interest rates fall and trust in traditional currencies wavers.
Central bank demand remains strong, particularly from emerging markets seeking to diversify reserves away from the US dollar. While gold may not deliver explosive growth, it could play a stabilising role in portfolios in 2026, quietly benefiting as risk appetite fluctuates.
Other safe-haven assets could follow a similar trend, such as the Swiss Franc, Bitcoin and dare we say it, even Sterling.
With interest rates expected to gradually ease, geopolitical tensions lingering, and concerns around global growth and equity valuations rising, investors may increasingly look to gold as a store of value and hedge against volatility. Historically, gold performs best when interest rates fall and trust in traditional currencies wavers.
Central bank demand remains strong, particularly from emerging markets seeking to diversify reserves away from the US dollar. While gold may not deliver explosive growth, it could play a stabilising role in portfolios in 2026, quietly benefiting as risk appetite fluctuates.
Other safe-haven assets could follow a similar trend, such as the Swiss Franc, Bitcoin and dare we say it, even Sterling.
🤖 The true cost of AI: Growth at any price?
Building and running large-scale AI systems is enormously capital-intensive, from data centres and chips to energy consumption and specialist talent. As these costs become more apparent, 2026 may be the year investors start asking harder questions to differentiate between companies that can monetise AI sustainably and those simply absorbing costs to stay competitive.
There’s also a growing concentration risk. According to the Bank of England, companies reliant on AI accounted for 44% of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation in early October. That level of dominance leaves markets vulnerable if expectations slip or earnings fail to justify valuations. Our prediction: 2026 could see a selective correction, rewarding firms with clear revenue models, while exposing those riding the AI hype without real profits to show for it.
Building and running large-scale AI systems is enormously capital-intensive, from data centres and chips to energy consumption and specialist talent. As these costs become more apparent, 2026 may be the year investors start asking harder questions to differentiate between companies that can monetise AI sustainably and those simply absorbing costs to stay competitive.
There’s also a growing concentration risk. According to the Bank of England, companies reliant on AI accounted for 44% of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation in early October. That level of dominance leaves markets vulnerable if expectations slip or earnings fail to justify valuations. Our prediction: 2026 could see a selective correction, rewarding firms with clear revenue models, while exposing those riding the AI hype without real profits to show for it.
🌲The Carbon Credit Comeback
After years of scepticism, fragmented standards, and accusations of greenwashing, carbon credits may be poised for a quiet revival in 2026.
As climate targets collide with the practical limits of decarbonisation, more companies are being forced to confront the gap between ambition and execution. For hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, shipping, cement, and heavy industry, carbon credits are increasingly shifting from a “nice-to-have” to a necessary bridge. At the same time, regulatory frameworks are tightening, with higher quality thresholds, improved verification, and more transparent pricing, helping to restore credibility to a market that lost investor trust.
For investors, the opportunity may lie less in volume growth and more in quality: fewer credits, higher prices, and greater differentiation between robust projects and those that don’t stand up to scrutiny.
After years of scepticism, fragmented standards, and accusations of greenwashing, carbon credits may be poised for a quiet revival in 2026.
As climate targets collide with the practical limits of decarbonisation, more companies are being forced to confront the gap between ambition and execution. For hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, shipping, cement, and heavy industry, carbon credits are increasingly shifting from a “nice-to-have” to a necessary bridge. At the same time, regulatory frameworks are tightening, with higher quality thresholds, improved verification, and more transparent pricing, helping to restore credibility to a market that lost investor trust.
For investors, the opportunity may lie less in volume growth and more in quality: fewer credits, higher prices, and greater differentiation between robust projects and those that don’t stand up to scrutiny.
🏭 Micro Nuclear: From Concept to Commercial Reality
Nuclear power has long promised clean, reliable energy, but high costs, long build times, and public opposition have kept it on the sidelines. That could start to change in 2026 with small modular reactors (SMRs), often referred to as “micro nuclear”.
Unlike traditional nuclear plants, SMRs are designed to be deployed at a much smaller scale, dramatically reducing construction risk and upfront capital requirements.
Rolls-Royce is one of the big players in this shift, leveraging decades of nuclear expertise from defence and power systems. Our prediction: 2026 may be the year investors start pricing SMRs not as a distant possibility, but as a credible growth engine, with Rolls-Royce one of the clearest potential beneficiaries.
If you like predictions, there is also a load more of them for 2026 in the Thinkers360 library, for whom I am an Ambassador.
Chris M Skinner
Chris Skinner is best known as an independent commentator on the financial markets through his blog, TheFinanser.com, as author of the bestselling book Digital Bank, and Chair of the European networking forum the Financial Services Club. He has been voted one of the most influential people in banking by The Financial Brand (as well as one of the best blogs), a FinTech Titan (Next Bank), one of the Fintech Leaders you need to follow (City AM, Deluxe and Jax Finance), as well as one of the Top 40 most influential people in financial technology by the Wall Street Journal's Financial News. To learn more click here...