A little cloud in the sky

It’s Monday, start of the week, smile on my face and sun in the sky.

I should be looking up, pushing forward, feeling fine and seeing the future as bright.

We should all be.

But there’s a little cloud on the horizon called doubt.

Why is there doubt?

Because there is a feeling that we have prescribed the drugs to treat the illness but have not cured the disease.

Governments have pumped $11 trillion into the financial system, whilst banks have a further $1.5 trillion to come, according to the IMF’s latest figures.

$1.5 trillion still to write-off?

And most of that in Europe's banks?

According to the IMF, there's $418 billion in further bank losses in the USA, $126 billion in Asia and the bulk of the losses - $934 billion - in Europe, with $344 billion of that lot in the UK alone.

So yes, it’s Monday, start of the week, smile on my face and sun in the sky.

I am looking up, pushing forward, feeling fine and seeing the future as bright.

I just don’t like that little cloud.

Mind you, what do the IMF really know as last year they estimated the crisis to cost around $400 billion when it was just subprime losses and then upped it to $1 trillion after Lehmans collapse (blog entry from December 2008):

"Maybe it is outlined in the predictions of the IMF, who tagged
the original ‘subprime crisis’ losses to be between $350 and $400 billion in
late 2007. These estimates were increased to $1 trillion in April 2008, as the
markets liquidity started to dry up. And this was increased once more by the
Bank of England in October 2008 to $2.8
trillion."

Pah! 

Doubt has now been joined by Fear and Uncertainty.

Happy Mondays!

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