The macro view of 2026 from a Swiss Private Bank (EFG)

Continuing with this year’s outlook, I was also impressed by EFG’s report on the top themes for 2026. EFG is a Swiss Private Bank, and their view of this year falls into three main categories as articulated by Moz Afzal, Chief Investment Officer of EFG, in the opening section.

As we frame our outlook for 2026, it is clear that several new and rapidly evolving challenges are emerging alongside long-standing themes that have shaped the global landscape in recent years.

First, geopolitics. Geopolitical developments remain highly dynamic, with the potential for significant change at short notice. We anticipate that the flow of geopolitical news will continue to be volatile in 2026 – some events may be positively received, while others could lead to disappointment. Unpredictability will remain a defining characteristic. At the same time, the broader shift towards a multi-polar world, marked by increasing rivalry between major blocs, is a trend that has been underway for several years and is expected to persist.

Second, US exceptionalism. The notion that the United States distinguishes itself from other economies, particularly in terms of economic growth, will continue to be scrutinised in 2026. Policymakers and markets are expected to remain highly data-dependent. However, the US has consistently been a leader among advanced economies, and we believe this robust growth trend will continue into the coming year.

Third, technological advancement. The impact of new technologies – most notably artificial intelligence – and the significant investment required to develop the data infrastructure of the future will be central issues. Key questions will include: How will these investments be financed? Will the capital be deployed effectively? And what are the long-term benefits?

In addition to these themes, 2026 will also present challenges that tend to resurface periodically. Two issues remain highly relevant: Will emerging economies, often characterised by higher growth potential, deliver attractive returns for investors? And to what extent will bond markets exert pressure on countries with unsustainable fiscal policies to correct their course?

Their top 10 themes can be summarised as follows:

1. US set to lead economic growth
2. Trough interest rates in advanced economies; opportunities in emerging markets
3. Bond markets: Beware of shark infested waters
4. Geopolitics: New alliances, state capitalism and a diverging electorate
5. Trump’s 3 D’s: DOGE, Deregulation, and Drugs
6. Opportunities abound in the AI race
7. An EU revival: Restructuring and reform
8. Emerging markets have the wind in their sails
9. Private markets: Unlocking liquidity and diversification opportunities
10. IPOs and M&A activity: Multiple sectors set to benefit

My take on all of this?

Well, de-dollarisation and a focus on the position of USA globally will definitely continue to be under scrutiny; AI will still dominate the headlines; and something EFG do not reference is that stablecoins will be the big deal of the year as they mature.

Regarding an EU revival, I’m not so sure. As I blogged the other day, there is a lot pressure to break Europe apart, so a revival is questionable. It will be interesting to see what we are saying in December 2026. Meanwhile, here is the EFG report which you can download here.