Predicting the future: are you mad?

I take pride in how many things I’ve predicted in payments and finance.

that have come true from Digital Banking to cloud to BaaS to crypto and more, but I didn’t predict a lot of things, such as the financial crisis of 2008, the sovereign debt crisis that followed and the pandemic that came after that.

That is because my focus is purely on the future of finance, technology, payments and banking.

But then, the other day, I was watching QI, a UK TV series that brings up unusual facts in a comedy panel format. In this particular programme, they were discussing the futuristic forecasts of Jules Verne, the author best known for Around the World in 80 Days.

The thing is he wrote lots of other books including a prediction of what Paris, France, would be like in a hundred years. In that book, Paris in the Twentieth Century, he predicted automobiles, gas stations, and paved roads, as well as subways, elevators, and skyscrapers. He also foresaw electric street lighting, fax machines, and a basic version of the internet and computers with calculators capable of network communication. Additionally, the book touches on the rise of mass education, suburbs, recorded music, and electronic music.

Written in 1863, the book predicts what the world will be like in a hundred years and, amazingly a lot of things were correct. However, his publisher, Pierre-Jules Hetzel, did not accept the book because he thought that it was too unbelievable and it took ages to ever be published. The first French version of his 1863 book was published in 1994.

Fascinating story (find out more here), and it got me thinking about all the other things Jules Verne forecast. For example:

• Submarines: He accurately described submarines with advanced propulsion systems and dive suits.
• Space travel: In From the Earth to the Moon, he predicted a launch from Florida in an aluminum capsule with precise calculations for the force required to escape Earth's atmosphere.
• Electric vehicles: a future with electric lights and cars powered by internal combustion engines.
• High-speed transportation: He envisioned both elevated and underground passenger train systems, as well as high-speed trains powered by compressed air and magnetism.
• Communication: He predicted the fax machine ("picture-telegraph"), video conferencing, and a mechanical calculator network resembling the internet.
• Air travel: helicopters, jets, and other forms of flying machines.
• Other inventions: He also envisioned devices like tasers, solar sails, and skywriting.

Then it got me thinking about other old world futurists like Leonardo da Vinci who forecast everything from the helicopter (based on the aerial screw) to the submarine to the robotic knight centuries before Jules Verne.

But then, of course, the original futurist has to be Nostradamus. Born in 1503, he forecast lots of things that we talk about today from the death of King Henry II of France, the rise of Napoleon and Hitler, the French Revolution, the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and 9/11.

The question is whether he actually predicted those things or it’s just our interpretation.

Interestingly, he was followed by Baba Vanga (not Baba Yaga), a Bulgarian attributed mystic and healer who claimed to have foreseen the future. The legendary oracle, who died in August 1996, is thought to have predicted everything from the horrific 9/11 attacks to the 44th US president being a Black man.

There are many others in history who forecast our today and tomorrow, so I asked AI What is the Future? and it’s reply is that there will be massive technological advancements like autonomous vehicles, advanced AI-powered entertainment, and potentially "cognitively connected" human-AI networks, alongside major challenges such as the progression of climate change and population aging.

Other predictions point to transformations in medicine through bioengineering and the wider availability of life-saving vaccines, as well as shifts in entertainment toward virtual reality and esports.

For more detail:

Technology

• Transportation: Electric cars are predicted to outnumber gas-powered cars in developed nations by the 2040s, and synthetic fuels will be used for aircraft. By 2050, many military aircraft and vehicles will be robotic or optionally manned.
• AI: By the late 2030s, advanced AI could create photorealistic movie characters and highly responsive, customisable video games. In the 2030s, AI could power autonomous systems in combat vehicles, and by 2040, physical video game consoles will likely be obsolete.
• Human-computer interaction: By 2055, some futurists predict humans may be "cognitively connected" through servers, allowing for faster, shared brainstorming.

Science and health

• Bioengineering: Advances in bioengineering hold the potential to transform medicine and address global challenges like climate change, clean water, and food security.
• Vaccines: The global availability of life-saving vaccines is predicted to expand significantly, preventing millions of deaths in developing countries.
• Materials science: The creation of stronger, lighter, and thinner materials could lead to significant technological and other changes.

Society and environment

• Climate change: The oceans are expected to continue to absorb excess heat and carbon dioxide, leading to increased acidification which will harm marine life.
• Workforce and economy: Aging populations may lead to a shrinking workforce in many countries.
• Entertainment: esports will likely become a larger industry, potentially surpassing traditional sports, and virtual reality is expected to replace current meeting technologies.

Wow!

The future is always exciting as it is the only thing we don’t know but we can change.

My own personal forecasts, outside banking, payments and finance, is that we will be dealing with an invisible financial system by 2030; we will become symbiotic with technology, with technology connectivity inside us (embedded), by 2040; we will be a multiplanetary species living on the Moon and Mars by 2060; we might be wiped out by climate change by 2100.

What are your predictions?