What will money look like in 2050 and beyond?

I wonder what my kids will feel in a financial future of 2050 and beyond. We will probably regale them with stories about using cheques and cash and paper to exchange value. They will probably be amazed that such systems worked, but it’s a bit like me being amazed about how tally sticks worked a few centuries ago.

If you don’t know the story about tally sticks worked, a merchant manager looking over traders would cut into a stick to indicate the amount of money, tax, or goods (grain or livestock) was owed. The specific size of the notch corresponded to different values, such as a palm's width for 1,000, a thumb's breadth for 20, a little finger for 1.

Once cut the debtor would get a piece of the stick that was cut off – the foil – and the merchant manager, who worked for the Royal Exchequer, would record the transaction. The key to this is that the wood grain was unique, so the two halves would only match each other perfectly if returned together, preventing forgery when the debt was settled.

It’s a fascinating form of olden trade.

Now, we present paper to trade, but it is disappearing fast. I have this view that cash and cheques in a few years, will be viewed like tally sticks from years ago.

So, what about tomorrow?

Tomorrow, we talk about digital currencies and tokenisation. Everything from CBDCs to stablecoins to cryptocurrency. I’m pretty sure that, by 2050, this will be the mainstream way to trade, and people will look back at paper transactions as being like tally sticks. We will have moved on.

But what about a century or more from now? Does this even matter? I guess it does to me, as I’m looking at the long-term always, but we will have moved rapidly from sticks to paper to digital to … what?

Who knows, but here’s my vision.

We are moving to all transactions being digital, online, real-time, all the time. We will transact every day in every way, everywhere. It’s all embedded and invisible. We will have robots – both agentic AI and physical humanish – managing everything for us. In many ways, it leaves us wondering what will we be doing?

The utopia is that we are just having fun and enjoying life. The dystopian is that we are all at war with other planets and massive issues. The latter imagines that we all earn credits – embedded and invisible – towards a future where we can relax. The former believes that money doesn’t matter; reputation does.

It’s Star Trek versus Star Wars … or is it?

Whatever the future becomes, a century from now, I’m pretty sure they will laugh at the way we traded, a bit like we laugh at tally sticks from centuries ago. Yes, everything will be embedded and invisible, but the financial firms that support such systems and structures will still be chasing after you if you are overdrawn, out of credit, fraudulent or fake.

And that is the key point, I guess. Anyone who tries to buck the systems will be identified, tracked, caught, charged and jailed. That was true in Medieval times, in our networked times of today and our multiplanetary times of tomorrow.

So, just be good.

Oh, and just to bring the story to an end around tally sticks, I wondered what would happen if you didn’t repay your debt?

The answer:

Legal Action and Court Judgment: Unpaid, officially recorded debts (particularly those owed to the Crown) resulted in legal proceedings, often leading to a judgement requiring the debtor to pay the full amount.

Seizure of Assets/Property: Creditors or royal tax collectors (sheriffs) could seize property, goods, or land to satisfy the debt, a process that was well-documented by the Exchequer.

Imprisonment: As in the case of William de Brochose, who altered a tally and pocketed money, debtors could face imprisonment for fraud or failure to meet tax obligations.

Reputation Loss: In smaller communities, failing to settle debts led to a damaged reputation, as word would spread about those who did not honour their obligations.

Nothing much changes …